"The Annual Oscar Predictions" (2014)

BEST PICTURE

American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity
Her
Nebraska
Philomena
12 Years a Slave
The Wolf of Wall Street

Quite an eclectic mix of movies nominated this year ~ a historical epic drama about slavery (“12 Years a Slave”), a heart-wrenching comedy about a woman’s 50-year long search for her son (“Philomena”), a quirky science fiction (“Her”), a performance-heavy American indie (Nebraska) and a yet-another- Scorsese-Dicaprio-pairing (“The Wolf of Wall Street”) ~ all of them are cohesive, entertaining and well-crafted tales deserving of the Oscar gold in their own right. “Captain Phillips” is this year’s “Argo”, a thrilling adventure based on a true story. So is “Dallas Buyers Club”, a biographical drama that highlights the pharmaceutical industry and AIDS patients in the late 80s. 

Every year there’s at least one movie that pushes the boundaries and sets new standards in filmmaking such as “Life Of Pi” (2012), “Hugo” (2011), “Inception” (2010) and “Avatar” (2009). Believe it or not, none of these aforementioned movies were able to take home the Best Picture statue despite their nominations. This year, “Gravity” with its groundbreaking visual effects, is one hell of a spectacle but will it be able to outshine the others? We will have to wait and see. For me, it’s unlikely. Though for certain, “Gravity” will sweep the technical awards. 

Who will/should win:  “American Hustle” on the other hand is a true Hollywood flick that we’ve come to expect. Unforgettable for its star-studded cast that delivers electrifying performances, the solid script that makes us laugh, cry, get mad and fall in love with the characters despite their flaws and the genius soundtrack with both bizarre and nostalgic elements. Not to mention the dazzling costumes and the twisted end that no one could have predicted. Plus it’s epic enough and very American.

BEST DIRECTOR
Alfonso Cuarón, Gravity
Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
Alexander Payne, Nebraska
David O. Russell, American Hustle
Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street

Who will/should win: Alfonso Cuarón has a very good chance if the voters decide to spilt their votes like they did last year for “Argo” (Best Picture) and “Life Of Pi” (Ang Lee for Best Director) but David O.Russell, having lost his Oscar already last year for his brilliant “Silver Linings Playbook” and for “The Fighter” in 2010 is locked for this category.

BEST ACTOR

Christian Bale, American Hustle
Bruce Dern, Nebraska
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club

Shall we just say goodbye to Christian Bale and Bruce Dern already. Yes, they are both incredible in their respective roles but the former won his Oscar merely three years ago and the latter, mmmmm, is unfortunately featured in a lesser-known smaller-scale movie and might not have the strength to beat the Hollywood heavyweights such as DiCaprio, McConaughey or Bale. At least Dern has knocked out Tom Hanks (“Captain Phillips”) and scored a nomination. (If that’s any consolation)

“12 Years a Slave” is the star vehicle for Chiwetel Ejiofor, a theatre veteran in his native England. Thanks to the movie, folks in Hollywood now know how to pronounce his name correctly. Besides, his nomination will generate far better roles for him to play in the next five years. That is pretty much it. Unless of course, the voters want a surprise and pull a Halle Berry on us. Leonardo DiCaprio, one of the most respected actors out there, deserves an Oscar, no doubt. In fact it’s long overdue. But sadly this is not his best work and to be honest, his collaborations with Martin Scorsese (“The Wolf of Wall Street” is their fifth) usually result in an-alpha-male-yet-flawed-and-fragile-deep-within roles. It is getting boring. It’s chicken dish cooked in a different style but it’s chicken nevertheless. 

Who should/will win: Matthew McConaughey. Though this is his first nomination, “Dallas Buyers Club” is his career-best performance, strong enough to easily overtake the other four nominees. His commitment to the role of an AIDS patient is nothing short of monumental. Not only did he lose 47 pounds and become unrecognizable but also showcase such depth and range in playing the character.

BEST ACTRESS
Amy Adams, American Hustle
Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Sandra Bullock, Gravity
Judi Dench, Philomena
Meryl Streep, August: Osage County

As usual in this category, it’s too close to call. Sandra Bullock’s astronaut-in-crisis (“Gravity”) is a respectable performance that pulls the heartstrings of moviegoers and critics alike. The movie somewhat mirrors America's sweetheart's own personal life and struggles, which could also be the reason why Emma Thompson (“Saving Mr. Banks”) who deserves this nomination far more than Bullock couldn’t find her place in the category. Dame Judi had an early Oscar buzz for “Philomena” but it has fizzled out, as Blanchett belting blues is brilliant in “Blue Jasmine”. The Aussie has since bagged many earlier awards including the Globe and BAFTA. The only thing that could go against Blanchett is her association with Woody Allen. But her not winning the second Oscar won’t be too big of an upset anyway.

Who should win: La Streep knows she’s so good that in some scenes of “August: Osage County”, she even acts wearing dark Jackie-O sunglasses. The bad script couldn’t drown her either; her portrayal of a pill-popping mum is awe-inspiring and intricate, of an actress like Katherine Hepburn’s caliber. Of course if she ends up winning, that would make her tie with Kate the great for the most acting Oscar wins. In an ideal world, of course! 

Who will win:  This is Amy Adams’s fifth nomination. Adams is one of the most versatile actresses in Hollywood right now and the only Oscar-less person in the Best Actress race this year. Switching between two different accents, she is fragile, cunning, hilarious, sympathetic and unpredictable in “American Hustle”. This might just be her year. 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips
Bradley Cooper, American Hustle
Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street
Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club

With “American Hustle”, Bradley Cooper gets to prove once again (his second consecutive Oscar nomination) that he’s more than just a pretty face. But truth to be told, his dashing good looks and swagger, even with the 70’s style disco perm, distract moviegoers from concentrating on his acting chops. Gosh, he’s so handsome! Barkhad Abdi (“Captain Phillips”) is menacing as a Somali pirate leader. So is Michael Fassbender (“12 Years a Slave”), a villain role Christoph Waltz would have liked to play and probably won his third Oscar for. But sorry, Waltz! Fassbender does it convincingly and… without the German accent.  Jonah Hill brings a much-needed comic relief in “The Wolf of Wall Street”. However, male comedians are not as lucky as their female counterparts when it comes to winning in the supporting category. Only Alan Arkin (“Little Miss Sunshine”) has won in the last two decades whereas at least 5 women have been awarded for their comedic roles. And by the way, Arkin was pretty old and they needed an excuse to give him an Oscar. 

Who will/should win: Jared Leto in “Dallas Buyers Club”. His performance as a transgender woman, Rayon is effortlessly exquisite yet strikingly memorable. His win is an easy bet, undisputed and justified.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine
Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave
Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
June Squibb, Nebraska

Sally Hawkins’s character is a yin to Cate Blanchett’s yang in “Blue Jasmine”, delightful and downright delicate. June Squibb in “Nebraska” is such an adorable character that manages to draw both laughter and love from the audience. Julia Roberts may no longer be the highest paid actress in Hollywood but with “August: Osage County” she has proven once again that she’s still a credible actress who could hold her very own against Meryl Streep.

Who should win: Jennifer Lawrence shines the brightest in “American Hustle”. She’s so captivating and charismatic that fans of the movie wish her character should have been introduced earlier in the movie and given more screen time. Lawrence is truly the Jodie Foster of this generation and like Foster, why shouldn’t she win her first two Oscars before she turns 30. Even if it’s back to back. 

Who will win: Lupita Nyong’o has arrived. With a bang. Loud. Not only has she been robbing awards from the hands of Jennifer Lawrence. Now she’s a fashionista. The It girl. She hangs out with the coolest industry people. Her radiant face is gracing every possible magazine one could imagine. The hype around her is so immense that it could almost result in an actual win. And about her performance in “12 Years a Slave”, it’s NOBLE but somewhat MINIMAL compared to the other four nominees. But then again, didn’t Judi Dench win this same award a decade ago and she was in the movie for a combined 8 minutes? 

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
David O. Russell and Eric Warren Singer, American Hustle
Woody Allen, Blue Jasmine
Craig Borten and Melisa Wallack, Dallas Buyers Club
Spike Jonze, Her
Bob Nelson, Nebraska

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy and Ethan Hawke, Before Midnight
Billy Ray, Captain Philips
Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope, Philomena
John Ridley, 12 Years a Slave
Terence Winter, The Wolf of Wall Street

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
The Croods
Despicable Me 2
Ernest & Celestine
Frozen
The Wind Rises

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Philippe Le Sourd, The Grandmaster
Emmanuel Lubezki, Gravity
Bruno Delbonnel, Inside Llewyn Davis
Phedon Papamichael, Nebraska
Roger A. Deakins, Prisoners

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Michael Wilkinson, American Hustle
William Chang Suk Ping, The Grandmaster
Catherine Martin, The Great Gatsby
Michael O'Connor, The Invisible Woman
Patricia Norris, 12 Years a Slave

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Adruitha Lee, Robin Mathews ("Dallas Buyers Club")
Stephen Prouty ("Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa")
Joel Harlow, Gloria Pasqua-Casny ("The Lone Ranger")

Best Original Score

John Williams ("The Book Thief")
Steven Price ("Gravity")
William Butler, Owen Pallett ("Her")
Alexandre Desplat ("Philomena")
Thomas Newman ("Saving Mr. Banks")

Best Original Song

"Happy" from "Despicable Me 2"
"Let It Go" from "Frozen"
"The Moon Song" from "Her"
"Ordinary Love" from "Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom"

Who will/should win: No movie song in recent history has gone viral, climbed Top 20 charts, been parodied and remade as much as "Let It Go" from "Frozen" ~ Idina Menzel will sing her way to the Oscar victory. 

~ The Annual Oscar Predictions (2013) ~

Best Picture:

"Beasts of the Southern Wild"

"Silver Linings Playbook"

"Zero Dark Thirty"

"Lincoln"

"Les Miserables"

"Life of Pi"

"Amour"

"Django Unchained"

"Argo"

Wait, what?  “The Twilight Saga: Breaking Down Part II” isn’t nominated for “Best Picture”???  

(Nah, just kidding!)

It was a great year for France last year, with “Artist” winning major awards but this year has got to be the most American year in cinema. Apart from “Amour” “Life of Pi” and “Les Miserables”, all six other films depict America or apply American history as core theme. Genre wise, there’s something for everyone. Carefully crafted political dramas (“Argo”, “Zero Dark Thirty”), light-hearted comedy with an uplifting message (“Silver Linings Playbook”), customary performance-heavy biopic (“Lincoln”), action-packed Tarantino style western, (“Django Unchained”), Hollywood grand-scale musical (“Les Miserables”), epic CGI-heavy extravaganza (“Life Of Pi”) and last but not least, inspiring indies that are actually about humans and about the issues that we can all relate. (“Amour” & “Beasts Of The Southern Wild”)

Who should win: “Argo”- A movie that does not allow you to have a bathroom break, forcefully pinning you to your seat from beginning to end. Since the story is based on an actual happening, The Canadian Caper, the CIA rescue mission of six Americans who escaped during the seizure of American Embassy in Iran in 1979, you do know that there’s a happy ending. Yet you can’t help but tensely suffer along with the characters in the movie, sweaty palms and fast-beating hearts, which is of course a successful outcome of splendid storytelling, detailed direction and awesome acting from a cohesive cast. “Argo” is a winner not because of a stand out individual but because everyone involved chips in a great deal of good work. Everything seems just right. (2005’s Best Picture winner “Crash” comes to mind.)

Who will win:  “Argo”- The Academy has already caused an upset for snubbing movie’s director, Ben Affleck. It would only be criminal if this movie failed to win.

Best Supporting Actress:

Sally Field, "Lincoln"

Anne Hathaway, "Les Miserables"

Jacki Weaver, "Silver Linings Playbook"

Helen Hunt, "The Sessions"

Amy Adams, "The Master"

All five actresses have been nominated at least once, twice or more before. Some already have had the privilege to decorate their living room with the golden statue, not one but two in Sally Field’s case. While Amy Adams, in her fourth nomination, is long overdue to win, her performance in “The Master” is not flashy enough, rather minimal in fact; or to positively spin it, restrained. So is Jacki Weaver’s role as a mother of a son with bipolar disorder. Not to say, both performances aren’t good, only that there are better performances by their costars in the same movies, which unfortunately overshadow theirs. (Adams Vs. Hoffman in “The Master”, similarly, Weaver Vs. De Niro in "Silver Linings Playbook").

Moreover, it is unlikely that the voters would want to upset Hollywood’s darling dearest, Anne Hathaway. There’s no way Helen Hunt’s quietly brilliant performance as a professional sex surrogate in “The Sessions” could triumph over Hathaway’s Fantine in “Les Miserables”. If you ever wonder what it must sound like when a heart breaks, listen to her rendition of “I Dreamed A Dream” and it certainly is louder than Jennifer Hudson belting out “And I’m Telling You” in “Dreamgirls”- That performance alone is strong enough to carry Anne towards her Oscar glory. 

Who should/will win: Anne Hathaway

Best Supporting Actor:

Christoph Waltz, "Django Unchained"

Philip Seymour Hoffman, "The Master"

Robert De Niro, "Silver Linings Playbook"

Alan Arkin, "Argo"

Tommy Lee Jones, "Lincoln"

It’s just a matter of which dude takes home his second Oscar. Alan Arkin had his Judi Dench moment a few years back for winning in “Little Miss Sunshine”, a questionable win to many. (Dench’s 8-minute performance “Shakespeare in Love” as well won her the gold in 1999.) Both are consistently great actors but it’s ridiculous to award them in movies where they are barely there. Why not give them “Lifetime Achievement Award” instead. That being said, Arkin in “Argo” is memorable. His character in the movie not only brings hope but also provides a much-needed comic relief.

Truth to be told, “Best Supporting Actor/Actress” category is where surprises happen. Tommy Lee Jones and Robert De Niro, both brilliant in lending support to their respective films with their marvelous acting, could upset Christoph Waltz who is highly tipped to triumph. Possibly because it has been a long time since their last Oscars and Waltz took home his first Oscar just two years ago in the same category playing a somewhat similar role in “Inglorious Basterds”. Phillip Seymour Hoffman’s performance in “The Master” is truly unforgettable but sadly forgotten by now as the movie was released a while ago. Voters are certainly going to give it a miss.

Who should/will win: Christoph Waltz – charming, witty but ruthless and dangerous when necessary as a bounty hunter extraordinaire, Waltz is mesmerizing. Although playing a secondary character, along side two major movie stars, Jamie Foxx and Leonado Dicaprio, everyone knows who the real scene-stealer in “Django Unchained” is.

Best Director:

David O. Russell, "Silver Linings Playbook"

Ang Lee, "Life of Pi"

Steven Spielberg, "Lincoln"

Michael Haneke, "Amour"

Benh Zeitlin, "Beasts of the Southern Wild"

Who should win: Ben Affleck for “Argo” (who’s not even nominated)

Who will win: Steven Spielberg. Whatever Spielberg touches turns to gold. The movie, already nominated for 12 Oscars, the most of all films nominated, explains why no one would dispute when he eventually took home his third directing Oscar.

Best Actor:

Daniel Day Lewis, "Lincoln"

Denzel Washington, "Flight"

Hugh Jackman, "Les Miserables"

Bradley Cooper, "Silver Linings Playbook"

Joaquin Phoenix, "The Master"

Veterans (Lewis, Washington & Phoenix) Vs. First Timers (Jackman & Cooper). Unlike “Best Actress” category, it is packed with solid performances that deserve recognition regardless of whoever eventually wins. Denzel Washington as a pilot-on-a-downward-spiral in “Flight” is by far his career best. (Even better than his second Oscar win, for playing a bad cop in “Training Day”) With “Les Miserables” Hugh Jackman proves that he’s more than just Wolverine. Not only does he sing like an angel but also is capable of taking on challenging iconic roles such as Jean Valjean. Similarly, Bradley Cooper sheds his usual skin as the handsome leading man who occasionally goofs up or kicks ass in movies with “Silver Linings Playbook”; he masterfully manages to get both chuckles and tears out of audience. 

Who should win: Joaquin Phoenix as a troubled World War II veteran struggling to adjust to post-war society in “The Master”, is acting tour de force. His commitment to his character is astonishing. That being said, his sour attitude towards awards and recognition will deter him from winning. In our human world, those who are humble and grateful get often rewarded. And Hollywood is no different. But obviously, Phoenix doesn’t care. He probably won’t even show up. 

Who will win: Daniel Day Lewis or shall we say, Meryl Streep in male form, is convincingly Lincoln, from the way he strokes his sideburns to delivering the history-making speech. The man spent a year preparing for this role and during that time, he read over 100 books about Lincoln. It takes a lot of guts to play someone this iconic and Hollywood salutes gutsy actors. Like Streep as Thatcher last year, Lewis as Lincoln is nothing but monumental.

Best Actress:

Naomi Watts, "The Impossible"

Jessica Chastain, "Zero Dark Thirty"

Jennifer Lawrence, "Silver Linings Playbook"

Emmanuelle Riva, "Amour"

Quvenzhané Wallis, "Beasts of the Southern Wild"

Usually a tight category filled with ostentatious performances, this year marks one of the weakest races ever. No schizophrenic ballerina, No Nazi jail guard or No Meryl Streep. Yes, is that even possible? (Although Streep’s performance in “Hope Springs” could easily rival or even outshine any of the candidates in the category) The Oscars love nominating young actresses (Abigail Breslin (“Little Miss Sunshine”), Saoirse Ronan (“Atonement”) to name a few, sometimes even resulting in eventual wins (Tatum O’Neal (“Paper Moon”), Anna Paquin (“The Piano”), although many of these cases were in “Best Supporting Actress” category.

This year, Quvenzhané Wallis is a surprise nominee and the youngest ever to be nominated. Only six years old when the film was made, her candid yet captivating performance shoulders “Beasts Of The Southern Wild”. But we are talking about Oscars here; it’s holier than thou and especially Wallis, a now 8 year old, in her acting debut. She’ll have to wait. And… let’s not forget Emmanuelle Riva in “Amour”- her portrayal of an elderly woman and her struggles of old age in her twilight years shows incredible range as an actress. As painful and difficult it is to watch, we couldn’t help but sympathize with her. If she wins she will become the oldest “Best Actress” winner beating the previous record holder, Jessica Tandy (“Driving Miss Daisy”) but that is not going to happen unfortunately.

Naomi Watts’s tsunami survivor in “The Impossible” as well is great but frankly, not Oscar-worthy. Unless they are looking for “Halle Berry’s win” kind of shock, Watts stands no chance. So that comes down to the two Hollywood sweethearts, Jennifer Lawrance and Jessica Chastain. Both have seen their careers soar from strength to strength in recent years.

Who should win: Jennifer Lawrance, in her most exciting role yet. As a young widow and a sex addict in “Silver Linings Playbook”, Lawrance is hilarious, annoying, pitiful, charming, gallant and most importantly, vulnerable.

Who will win:  Jessica Chastain- “Zero Dark Thirty” does not give her enough substance to let her craft shine. As an Osama-chasing CIA agent, she plays her part well but it is just not an Oscar material. Period. She will be awarded though for two possible reasons. A) She is playing an unsung hero. B) The story paints a pivotal moment in modern American history. “Zero Dark Thirty”, let’s just say, isn’t “Silence Of The Lamb”. Nor Chastain’s character, Maya is Clarice Starling, not even close. But if she does win the Oscar, there’s always her electrifying, scene-stealing turn as Celia Foote in last year’s “The Help” to remind us of how great of an actress Chastain is.

Best Original Screenplay:

"Zero Dark Thirty"

"Django Unchained"

"Moonrise Kingdom"

"Amour"

"Flight"

Who should win: Quentin Tarantino "Django Unchained"– The New York Times critic A.O. Scott says “Django Unchained is entertaining, brazenly irresponsible and also ethically serious in a way that is entirely consistent with its playfulness." 

Who will win: Mark Boal “Zero Dark Thirty” – “the story of history's greatest manhunt for the world's most dangerous man," Need I say more?

Best Adapted Screenplay:

"Lincoln"

"Silver Linings Playbook"

"Argo"

"Life of Pi"

"Beasts of the Southern Wild"

Who should/will win: "Argo"

Best Cinematography:

"Skyfall"

"Anna Karenina"

"Django Unchained"

"Life of Pi"

"Lincoln"

Who should win: "Life Of Pi" – stunning imagery; innovative cinematography that also understands the importance of subtlety while keeping the perfect balance between reality and imaginary.

Who will win: "Lincoln"- purposely monotonous throughout yet a few epic shots displaying masterful use of natural light could propel the film’s cinematographer to victory. Camerawork in “Lincoln” is kept unpretentious and mostly minimal, without going over the top or being too distracting, which essentially compliments the performance-driven film.

Best Costume Design:

"Anna Karenina"

"Les Miserables"

"Lincoln"

"Mirror Mirror"

"Snow White and the Huntsman"

Who should & will win: “Anna Karenina” ~ The depiction of Russian Aristocracy goes a little overboard with opulent hats, fur coats, jewelries and gowns, to a point that the audience is no longer interested in what is going to happen but what Anna (Kiera Knightly) will wear in the next scene but we are not complaining. We love all couture galore!

Best Makeup and Hairstyling:

"Hitchcock"

"The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey"

"Les Miserables"

Who will and should win: Transforming a recognizable Anthony Hopkins into his character, Alfred Hitchcock can’t be that easy. Thanks to the makeup team, Hopkins could bury himself under the prosthetics without a trace and effectively become Hitchcock.  

Best Music (Original Score):

"Anna Karenina"

"Argo"

"Life of Pi"

"Lincoln"

"Skyfall"

Who will and should win: “Life Of Pi” –a melancholy, contemplative and earthy soundtrack. This year’s “Slum Dog Millionaire” without the dance numbers.

Best Foreign Feature 

"Amour"

"Kon-Tiki"

"A Royal Affair"

"No"

"War Witch"

Who will and should win: “Amour” – While the film will likely get shut out in major categories including "Best Actress" and "Best Original Screenplay"- this inevitable win will at least compensate the Austrian film maker Michael Haneke for his poignant plot and powerful performances by the film's two leading actors. 

Best Music (Original Song):

"Before My Time" from "Chasing Ice"

"Everybody Needs A Best Friend" from "Ted"

"Pi's Lullaby" from "Life of Pi"

"Skyfall" from "Skyfall"

"Suddenly" from "Les Misérables"

Who will and should win: "Skyfall" by Adele. Do folks even know what other nominated songs sound like?  This is the year of Adele. No other James Bond theme in recent years (Not even Madonna (“Die Another Day”) could capture the true essence of James Bond like “Skyfall”). It takes us back to Shirley Bassey’s time, an era of great big orchestral music and soaring female voices; and about being a sex kitten as well as a femme fatale. Only Adele could show you how to merge these two contrasts together. GOLD!